The
NFL, where a sure thing will never actually exist! Aaron Rodgers, who is
supposedly the best fantasy QB in the last couple years had such a bad week
that it actually cost me the game. He puts up an average week and I win with
ease. So I’ll start off by apologizing for being so bad in my predictions last
week. I guess the NFL is too unpredictable to even really be writing about it
or playing fantasy football at all, but we love it anyway and you all love it
enough to read my posts about how bad my team has been this season.
So week
three was such an odd week that I really don’t know where to go from there, but
looking through ESPN’s takes on how each player did last week I can see a lot
of regression to the mean about to happen. What do I mean by regression to the
mean you ask? I’ll explain.
Regression
to the mean is something I live by. It’s the idea that an unlikely sequence of
events happens, and is followed by the opposite or going back to the normal. I
learned about this in ESPN the Mag and the example they used was that the Jets
recovered a ton of fumbles one season (yes the Jets did something good) and the
next season they recovered way less than the league average. I’m a firm
believer that regression to the mean can occur in really anything.
How
does this relate to my Love/Hate this week? Well a lot of my players had
terrible games in week three and I know they are better than what they
produced, so I expect most of them to come back in week four and have a huge
game to stay at their season average. That doesn’t mean I’ll go with all
players that had bad games last games last week, because there’s a fine line
between underperforming and just a bad game.
So here
we go:
Love:
QB: RGIII is going to have a good game. I think he’ll
finally get his sh** together and have a good game. He has to. If the Redskins
remain winless after playing the lowly Raiders then RGIII has a very good
chance of getting benched. With a pick or two Mike Shanahan is going to panic
and worry about his job security and there’s a good chance he benches RG0-3 for
Kirk Cousins. I think with some desperation RGIII will have to have a good
week. I can see him going off because he’s a dynamic athlete with a lot of
intangibles and will succeed in crunch time.
QB: Tony Romo could be big this week. With two high powered
offenses battling it out in San Diego, I see a shootout in San Diego this week.
RB: Giovani Bernard will play well against the Browns this
week because…. well, it’s the Browns. Bernard will tear them apart with his
speed in the open field and get into the end zone at least once or twice.
RB: Knowshon Moreno will have a great game against the
Eagles. I know I’ve said this guy more than once, and I was wrong last season,
but with the Broncos likely to be up early and the Eagles defense likely to be
tired from their offense’s low time of possession, I can see Moreno getting the
ball a lot.
WR: Cecil Shorts – this one’s completely a hunch. Shorts has
been heating up thus far scoring more and more each week. I think he’ll keep
heating up and slow down soon, but he’ll still stay around 20-22 points each
week after that.
WR: Marques Colston – I’m going out on a limb once again here.
I can see the Saints giving the Dolphins a reality check this week. “The
Dolphins are legit!” is what I’ve heard a lot after last week, but I think when
they play a real team in the Saints and their high powered offense I can see a
blowout. Colston is one of Brees’ favorite receivers and with the Dolphins
likely to pay a lot of attention to Jimmy Graham, who is coming off a monstrous
week, Colston will thrive with one-on-one coverage all game.
WR: Kenbrell Thompkins is going to have some freedom this
week because he’ll see more one-on-one coverage with Gronk being back.
Thompkins isn’t really that good, but it’s Tom Freakin’ Brady.
TE: Yeah I’m doing one again. And it’s going to be a top
tight end too. But, Rob Gronkowski is going to GO OFF this week! Why do I think
so? I mean he will definitely draw at least double coverage pretty much every
play so it’s not likely he even gets a catch this week, but it’s Tom Brady
throwing to Gronk. Can anyone stop that? Especially with this being Gronk’s
first week back, Brady is going to be excited to finally have his favorite
target back.
So a lot of my predictions were
based off hunches, a gut feeling, or a full out guess this week. But I've been
damn awful so far so I’m gonna go with something new this week and take some
guesses. We’ll see how it goes.
Hate:
QB: Michael Vick is going to look
like his old self this week. The Eagles will get down by a lot really early
which means Vick throwing a lot. His rush yards that kept his fantasy value
alive last week will be non-existent (see RG0-3 so far) and he’ll be forced to
be a pocket passer and throw a slew of interceptions.
RB: Lamar Miller won’t get the ball
much in a blowout loss to the Saints on Sunday.
WR: AJ Green will get a ton of
attention against the Browns and since they’re going to blow out the Browns,
they’ll look elsewhere that will be extremely easy to get production.
I’m sorry for my hate player’s evaluations
being so short but I’m trying to get this piece out as early as I can since it’s
late already.
This is also the first week of
byes! What to do with Aaron Rodgers sitting your bench this week? Well, take a
look at your bench. If you haven’t played half of them, drop them. You will
never play that rookie that’s on your favorite team that you think will break
out next week, or the week after…. Man up, drop him, and pick up a new guy. Having
Rodgers on my team, I went to the free agents and grabbed Pryor. Will I ever
need Pryor again after this week barring injury? Never. So I can pick him up
for a week, and drop him right after he plays, then go grab another backup for
my next bye week problem. By the end of the season when all the byes are over I
can finally re-stock and grab Aaron Dobson off the free agents just for the
novelty of having an over-rated rookie that never broke out that I like anyway
on my team.
No comments:
Post a Comment