Draft Review

My draft was on Saturday and it turned out to be very interesting. We are a very competitive league, but there were a couple things that surprised me. We did have one rookie drafter who actually had a great draft and didn't even have the worst draft. The first round was especially surprising as well. I’m going to tell you what I thought of the first round, what I thought were the biggest steals of the draft, and what I thought were the worst picks.

Here is what our first round looked like and what I thought of each pick:

Pick 1:   Adrian Peterson – This was a given and I have nothing to say about it really. He was the best player in the draft by far.

Pick 2:   Peyton Manning – What?!?!? This threw off the whole draft. Yes he is a quarterback who will put up a ton of points. Who am I kidding; this is the worst pick in fantasy history. Manning wasn’t even the best quarterback in the draft! He would have fallen at least to the third or fourth round! Tom Brady, in our league, fell to the 3^rd round and I would rank them about the same. This pick actually hurt me as well (I had the 10^th pick) too.

Pick 3:   Arian Foster – Well this guy was too obvious. If you can get Arian Foster with the third pick it’s a steal.

Pick 4: Ray Rice – Rice was a good pick. We know he’ll get a lot of touches, will be consistent and will catch a lot of passes and is on a winning team which means he’ll score touchdowns. Everyone can find a reason not to draft Rice or to draft him here so I won’t argue much about it, but I like this pick.

Pick 5:   Jamaal Charles – yeah Charles is hurt right now, but I’m sure he’ll be ready for the season. Charles is an interesting pick this early. He will probably improve from last season because he’s definitely healed from his knee injury and he actually has a quarterback now. I find Charles to be a hit and miss kind of guy because he relies on the big play a lot even though he will still put up consistent numbers regardless. In my opinion I think this pick is fine. Charles will be a top ten running back this season so there’s really not much to say.

Pick 6:   CJ Spiller – Spiller is going to get a ton of carries. He is the focal point of his offense and there are really not many more weapons on the Bills. I love this pick. Spiller has top three running back potential this season.

Pick 7:   Trent Richardson – Richardson probably isn’t the best pick here. Lynch was still on the board as well as Doug Martin. Honestly I don’t love Martin, but he isn’t as injury prone as Richardson. Lynch was the best pick here but it isn’t a huge deal. Richardson could have a great season.

Pick 8:   Marshawn Lynch – Had to grab Lynch here. Really the only other option is Doug Martin who isn’t as consistent as Lynch.

Pick 9:   Doug Martin – Another given. He was the best running back on the board and he has huge potential. He was top three last year so he had to be grabbed here. The other options were only Aaron Rodgers and if there’s a good left you have to get him.

Pick 10: Aaron Rodgers – This was my pick. I didn’t like any of the rest of the running backs much. McCoy was there but I had him last season and he didn’t do great for me. Here I figured that Rodgers would score as much as the average quarter back, plus the difference between the average running back compared to a first round worthy running back. I’m obviously biased but I love the pick.

Pick 11: Calvin Johnson Jr. – Personally I would never draft Megatron in the first round, but I can’t really argue with the pick. He’s by far the best wide receiver in the draft and puts up tons of points even when he doesn’t score TD’s.

Pick 12: LeSean McCoy – I’m not a huge fan of McCoy but I think he’ll improve a lot this season with Chip Kelly. Also, the first pick of the second round is right there so there’s no risk. All you have to do here and all you have to do is pick your two top players in the draft.

So there’s my take on our first round. If Peyton Manning didn’t go first round and the guy picking second had just went with Foster I could have gotten Doug Martin, but I’m happy with Rodgers anyway.  Later in the draft there were a couple steals I loved and some picks that just baffled me.

I’ll start the rest of this piece by saying which picks I thought were the top five steals and why.

Cam Newton fell to 6^th pick in the 5^th round. I love this pick. Newton isn’t really that impressive on the field, but in fantasy he is amazing and often overlooked. Newton really should have gone in the late third round in my opinion maybe early to mid-fourth round at the latest.  

Rashard Mendenhall fell to the 10^th in the 9^th round. Mendenhall is a starting running back at the moment. Any guy that is starting should not fall to the 9^th round no matter what team he is on and if he has rookies behind him. Mendenhall is proven and will get a lot of touches this season.

DeSean Jackson fell to the 10^th pick in the 7^th round. He is the number one receiver on a team that is going to improve a lot this season. Jackson has huge potential with big plays and touchdowns (as long as he doesn’t drop the ball before he crosses the plane of course!).

Matthew Stafford fell to the 10^th pick in the 8^th round. Stafford finally has a running back and he has Calvin Johnson Jr. to throw to. That’s pretty much all I have to say about him. Stafford will put up solid numbers every game because of Johnson alone and with a running back he can only improve.

Finally, Ryan Matthews went 11^th pick in the 9^th round. I’m not even sure I consider this a steal because it’s not like he was overlooked. We all knew what we would get if we drafted him. At this point in the draft he had to go. Any later and I would consider it more of a steal but it was just him being drafted after he was projected at because he is injury prone.

The worst picks of the draft were pretty obvious and I really could only think of a few of them. I hated Peyton Manning going in the first round. The fact that Jeremy Maclin got picked at all was ridiculous. Vernon Davis got picked in the fourth round was a terrible pick. Also two defenses, the Seahawks and the 49’ers, both went in the 6^th round. Finally, Stephen Gostowski went in the 8^th round which was baffling.

Alright, that’s all I’ve got to say on our draft. I’ll post again soon before the season starts about preseason injuries and waivers.

Here is what my team ended up looking like with the 10^th pick. The round I got them in is in parentheses:

QB: Aaron Rodgers (1)

RB: Darren Sproles (2)

RB: Chris Johnson (3)

WR: Marques Colston (4)

WR: Pierre Garcon (5)

TE: Fred Davis (10)

Flex: DeSean Jackson (7)

K: Garret Hartley (13)

D/ST: Cowboys (12)

Bench: Eddie Lacy (6)

Bench: Sidney Rice (8)

Bench: Rashard Mendenhall (9)

Bench: Jacoby Jones (10)

Draft Guide 2013

Hey folks this is the second writer on this blog. My first post will be about the same exact thing as Curtis but with a couple twists.

My view on how to win your fantasy league is going to be specifically about and referencing PPR scoring, 12 team leagues. The first key to your fantasy football success is to draft properly so that is what this piece will be about. I will describe how to draft two rounds at a time.

Round 1 and 2: GET A RUNNING BACK. Running backs may not be the highest scorers in PPR leagues but they aren’t the most plentiful. A good running back is really hard to snatch up in the late rounds so you need to grab one in the first couple rounds. Round 1 really should be only running backs and probably Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson Jr. (whom I don’t think is really worthy of a first round pick because there are tons of other top tier wide receivers available that produce almost as much) with the last three or four picks. This means that a running back should occupy the first 8 picks in the first round at least.

What’s my reasoning in this? Well, out of the top 50 point scorers last season only 11 of them were running backs, which means that if everyone wanted the players that simply score the most points they would be left with a team of four quarterbacks and six wide receivers. So, if you draft for scarcity you will end up with two, hopefully three, strong running backs, a quarterback that will produce about as much as the seven guys ranked above him, and about three or four wide receivers that can all put up starter-worthy numbers any given week. But, drafting running backs in the first round is the only way to do that.

When I’m drafting in the first round, no matter what pick I have, I always look for the best running back available. That doesn’t necessarily mean I pick the guy with the higher rank. I go for the guy that will score the most touchdowns and have the most receptions and isn’t likely to go out with injury for half the season (even though there really isn’t a way of predicting that there are some guys like Trent Richardson I won’t draft because of their likelihood of going out with injury). Now I’ll walk you through what I think the first round should actually look like.

Pick 1: Adrian Peterson

Peterson is the obvious pick here. I really don’t have much to say about it. He gains the most yards, is the center of the Viking’s offense, scores plenty (13 TD’s last season), and gets a good amount of receptions (40 in 2012-2013).

Pick 2: Arian Foster

Foster has had the most touches out of any player in the NFL for the last few seasons which can be seen as either a bad or good thing in his situation. This means he gets the most opportunities, but since he is always getting the ball season after season, his numbers have decreased each year. Even though his production is decreasing, I think he is still worthy of the second pick overall because those decreased numbers are still higher than the rest of the players available.

Pick 3: Ray Rice

This is somewhat of a bold decision here. Yes, he does have a young guy behind him that will take some solid time from him, but he gets a ton of receptions and has been consistently a top five running back for almost his whole career. Rice obviously doesn’t get injured or just plays through the minor ones. The thing about taking Rice with the third pick is that there’s no risk. He will put up top five numbers and you don’t have to worry about a hit or miss guy.

Pick 4: Marshawn Lynch

The Beast has got to go here. He’s finally above all the skepticism of him under-producing. He scores a ton of touchdowns, is finally considered consistent and will play through injury if needed. Also, Lynch is finally on a winning team with a solid quarterback which always helps.

Pick 5: Doug Martin

I’ve heard lots of bad things about Doug Martin in his second year, but he has so much upside that you can’t pass up on him. Way too much upside. He averaged the second most points per week to Adrian Peterson last season, scored 12 touchdowns, and caught 49 passes and will only improve next year barring injury which is always a possibility with his running style.

Pick 6: Jamaal Charles

Charles finally has a quarterback in Alex Smith. Also, under Andy Reid Charles should get even more production by catching passes and will likely get in the end zone way more.

Pick 7: CJ Spiller

Doug Maroney’s running backs last season were the highest in the Big East. Also, Spiller himself was great last year catching 43 passes and averaging 6.0 yards per carry. His touchdowns were pretty low, only scoring 8 times, but he will probably go up with a more rush oriented offense and a new quarterback in Geno Smith leading the team that could lead to tremendous upside.

Pick 8: Trent Richardson

Richardson had a great rookie season with 12 touchdowns and catching 51 passes and will only improve, but the risk of taking a guy that was constantly questionable throughout the season and whose running style makes his very prone to injury is too high to take Richardson any higher. Richardson could have amazing upside but, in my opinion, is way too risky to pick earlier than 8^th unless you are willing to take a risk.

Pick 9: Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,295 yards last year and it was considered an off year. There’s no more to be said about Rodgers except that he will only be better next season. Even though there are solid quarterbacks later in the draft, Rodgers is way above the rest of the quarterbacks (except possibly Brees).

Pick 10: Calvin Johnson Jr.

I really don’t like Johnson at all and personally I wouldn’t ever pick him in the first round because I would be left without two solid running backs and I would be able to find solid wide receivers later, but if your league drafts perfectly and there is none of the above running backs left, then I guess you have to go with Megatron.

Pick 11: Drew Brees

Brees is the same story as Rodgers except there are obvious reasons for Brees’ production to go up. Sean Peyton is returning and that doesn’t necessarily mean that Brees’ production will increase, but there is always the possibility and he is already so good that you have to take him here if he falls.

Pick 12:

This is a very interesting pick because you can either look at this pick and the first pick in the second round as two first round picks or two second round picks. Here you have too many options for me to tell you who exactly to pick. I can tell you that a running back like Darren Sproles or LeSean McCoy is always a good pick or a wide out like AJ Green could work as long as you get a running back in the second round. Two running backs back to back such as one of the aforementioned running backs paired with Steven Jackson or Alfred Morris or Maurice Jones-Drew if you’re willing to take a risk.

The rest of the draft is much less predictable. My first round predictions obviously won’t be perfect for every league but you get the idea. If players get switched around you will have to improvise obviously but I gave you a basic guide for round one. Round two and on you have to obviously fill the rest of your roster, but a couple of those players can obviously be waited on. You obviously don’t have to get a defense or kicker in the third and fourth rounds or even the tenth round. Wait on defense and kickers until the last possible rounds because every kicker and defense will produce about the same as the next guy, and don’t be fooled buy guys like Stephen Gostowski or the Bears D/ST. They do put up more points every week than the lower ranked spots but that’s only a two point difference which really won’t make the difference week to week.

While drafting backup wide receivers and running backs I always look for guys that will play a lot, are on good teams, and may have been overlooked. Sidney Rice is now the primary receiver in the Seahawks offense due to Percy Harvin’s injury. Rice was ranked really low earlier before Harvin went out for the season but now Rice is going to be the top target for Russell Wilson. Rice will probably fall pretty far because he is ranked so low so snag him up in the middle rounds. There are tons of other players out there that can produce that are overlooked, also there are just so many wide receivers available that they will fall to you in the late rounds. On the subject of tight ends, you want to be either the first or last owner to draft one. Jimmy Graham is really the only TE worthy of a pick in the first half of the draft. The rest, including Rob Gronkowski, are all too unpredictable to really use a pick on that you could be using a pick on to get a good flex player or backup. The only valuable “steal” in the tight end position would be Ed Dickson that you can probably get in late rounds.

My final point in draft strategy is to not be scared away by rookies. Look at RGIII and Doug Martin and Alfred Morris … and I almost forgot Trent Richardson hasn’t been in the league for five years already! They all had great, top tier rookie seasons and were all passed up on early in drafts. RGIII fell to the seventh round, I believe, in my fantasy draft even though he was a top five QB and we all knew he would be good, but we all passed up on him because he was a rookie. I remember Cam Newton being overlooked in his rookie season by two members of my league that made a trade: Mark Sanchez for Cam Newton. The trade was offered by the guy getting Sanchez. On the topic of this season’s rookies, I haven’t done much research, but I do know that Eddie Lacy looks a lot like Trent Richardson. Both played at Alabama, are about the same body type, but Lacy put up better numbers in his years at Alabama. So that’s about all I can say on draft strategy. I’ll write again sometime after Saturday night which is when my draft is.

By,

Alex Davis

Pre-Season Fantasy Football- Important Notes and Little Tips to Help Build a League Champ

Right off the bat, if you want to win your league you need to know this:
It takes 8 wins gets into the playoffs 95% of the time. 8-5 is do-able. For anyone.

It takes 10 wins gets into the playoffs 100% of the time. So 10-3 is automatic.

94 points a game over 13 weeks is good enough to get you 8 wins. Shoot for 94 points, you’ll make it in (standard not PPR) For PPR leagues it can be assumed that 115 points will be a good aiming point, as about 21 receptions can be fair to expect out of your starters. Breaking it down:

QB: 17 pts | RB1: 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10

Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94

Running backs are critical. Keep in mind last year, I had Aaron Rodgers, Wes Welker, a top 5 D and a top five kicker. I went a pitiful 5-8 because my running backs were Shonn Greene and Darren Sproles. Who? The Dope Zebras Quickly turned into the Doped-Up Zebras.

Take two backs in the first three rounds or you’re most likely screwed, unless you can luck out to get Rodgers/ Brees, one top RB, and a dominant WR. Also you’re looking for consistency, and last year only sixteen running backs were good enough to score ten points eight times. They go by the following names (no particular order):

Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, CJ2K, Lesean Mccoy, and Michael Turner. And Turner barely got there.

Long story short, if you can get 2 or 3 of these guys in the first 3 rounds, do it! They’re capable of getting the ten points a game you want out of running backs in the winning 94 point formula. And running backs are critical, plus it’s always key to have a good third RB as a bye week plug-in, injury backup, or flex play. Top RBs are few and far between in today’s NFL. And when there’s a shortage on something such as NFL running backs, they will go early and often.

Rodgers, Brees, P. Manning, Brady. If the quarterback does not have one of these names they aren’t worthy of a top-3 round pick. You can easily find a man named Romo or Palmer who are quality fantasy QBs later on, 6^th or maybe even 7^th rounds. The in-betweeners, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Even RG3, They aren’t worth your time unless they fall until the fifth round. Then their value increases, and a guy like Ryan is easily worth a 5^th round pick.

Another thing to consider:

Calvin Johnson Jr. Megatron. The Beast. Manimal. Whatever you want to call him, he’s not worth a first round pick. Especially in PPR leagues.
Think about it, drafting running backs this year is so critical that Megatron should NOT be on your first round considerations list, unless you pick 12^th in a 12 team snake draft after the top 11 RBs were taken and you plan on taking a RB with your 13^th pick. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy, but if you’re planning on building a team to win your league he is not worth 1^st round credentials.

Relating back to PPR leagues, why would you spend a 1^st round pick on Megatron when you could get two top RB’s and then Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, or Larry Fitzgerald (Who by the way, has a Quarterback throwing to him now) in the third round? All three of those guys have top end WR talent and top 5 fantasy potential year in and year out. So fill your voids at running back before you worry about taking Calvin Johnson Jr. Wide receivers can wait, Running backs are limited.

You’re an idiot to take a quarterback top 5. I’m sorry but I feel that’s all I have to say.

Don’t be afraid of taking Rob Gronkowski. Now now, I know he’s injured. I know he might not play week one, or week two, or week three. But play your cards right and he could be a steal in the fourth or fifth round. Why? Because his quarterback is Tom Brady, a top 5 QB year in and year out who is also consistently an MVP candidate. Gronk will be back and he will be Gronk. “Injury Prone” is a calling card for him but think about it, who does Brady have to throw to? Welker peaced out for Denver and Hernandez is rotting away in Jail. God knows why Brandon Lloyd is still a free agent but he is. Remember Danny Woodhead? He’s gone too. Gronk is a freak and if he comes back healthy and stays, he’s beyond worth waiting out 2 or 3 weeks without a tight-end scoring too much. The man has 38 touchdowns in 43 games as a pro! The numbers don’t lie, healthy Gronk is an animal. Draft a second tight end later on, IE a Jermicheal Finley or Martellus Bennett, and you will be A-OK. Trust me.

Don’t Overdraft a Defense. Ever, not if your life depends on it. People might get rowdy and take the 49ers and Seahawks and Broncos Defenses in the 7^th or 8^th rounds, crazy I know. But for my money’s worth, The Patriots Defense will be the best defensive draft value on the board this year. Bellichick is a genius and knows what he’s doing with that team. With all the Offensive holes to be filled, Defense should be the core of the Pats this year. They weren’t too shabby last year either, forcing 20 interceptions, 19 forced fumbles and recovering 8 of them. Not to mention they had 6 defensive touchdowns, more than Calvin Johnson Jr. had receiving or LeSean McCoy had rushing. Talk about opportunistic! The Pats Defense gets my full praise and if you can draft them in the 10^th or 11^th rounds, do it without question.

Sleepers: My biggest sleepers this year come by way of rookies, such as Cecil Shorts last year. Ring a bell Anthone?

Deandre Hopkins, WR Hou.- Houston has looked endlessly over the last decade for a solid number two wide receiver to couple Andre Johnson. The 6’1, 207, first round pick outta Clemson could very well answer the call. He’s an incredible athlete who won’t have much attention drawn to him with Johnson on the other side, and with a veteran QB like Schaub throwing to him he has every opportunity for success. He’s drawn comparisons to Roddy White, so that in it of itself should say a lot. Take him late, low-risk, high-reward situation.

Robert Woods, WR Buf.- Now yes this is fandom 101 for me, but look. Woods is a guy who’ll be a number 2 in Buffalo with Stevie Johnson on the other side drawing a lot of attention. It’s a little bit of a long shot with either Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel throwing him the football, but the guy has good size at 6’1, 190 and has great hands. Consistent hands haven’t been a part of Buffalo’s Offense since Eric Moulds (Who?) and Lee Evans were No. 1 & 2 receivers back in 2004.  Woods has a good chance at posting solid numbers this year, and for a guy who’s only owned in 9 percent of leagues why not take the risk?

Eddie Lacy, RB, GB- The rookie should start drawing comparisons to Trent Richardson immediately. Same body type at 5’9, 230, they even split the backfield in Alabama (Roll Tide!) he’s a power back who if, at nothing else, will be a professional vulture this year in Green Bay. Right now he and co-rookie Johnathan Franklin are battling for the starting job in Green Bay but Lacy seems to have the edge. Injury concerns are reasonable with him but if Richardson is any sign of what Lacy can do, then he could be a mid-to-late round steal. He’s a strong and big downhill runner who will see touches on the goal line, so look into Lacy.

Now down to draft strategy.

The first 9 Picks should be running backs. In fact if you pick 1^st through 7^th I’d say your first two picks should be running backs. End of the first round is the only acceptable slot for Rodgers or Brees to go that high, so if you’re picking 10^th through 12^th and they’re still available, take them! But think ahead to take a running back early second round, then third round look at a wide receiver and fourth a second running back, i.e. Darren Sproles or Montee Ball. And don’t Forget, Megatron really should be a second round pick.

Wide Receivers are plentiful in every meaning of the word. Most certainly there is a top tier of four guys- Calvin Johnson Jr, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and AJ Green. I might even be willing to add Wes Welker to that list in PPR leagues. But after that tier there is an absolute plethora, a casserole of nonsense of good wide receivers. There are about 30 guys you can plug in here and win games with. So really, why waste a first round pick on Megatron? I feel like I’m beating a dead horse here but he just isn’t worth a first round pick. If you can get him or another top tier guy late second round I’ll give you the green light, but that’s about as far as I’d reach to get one of them. Get your wide receivers 3^rd and 4^th round and you’ll be happy with your lineup.

The only two tight ends I like going in the first four rounds are Jimmy Graham and Gronk. They’re both beasts but should only be drafted if you have two solid running backs or a top-tier RB and a top tier QB. Otherwise you’re wasting your time. Graham should go mid-third and I can see gronk going mid-4^th to early 5^th in 12 team leagues. Next in line is Tony Gonzalez, who, paired with Jason Witten, should go 5^th round. Other than that don’t even worry about tight ends. Kyle Randolph, oops my mistake, Rudolph*, or Scott Chandler, Jared Cook or Brett Myers. They’re all the same. Even Vernon Davis, a supposed top-tier tight end, posted a goose-egg twice last year. If you aren’t taking a top 4 guy at tight end, wait until late rounds to snatch one of thirty average joes who’ll all produce about the same.

If you can’t get a top 5 QB in the first three rounds wait it out. Pick up someone like Romo sixth or seventh round, he’ll most likely put up the same numbers or similar to Cam Newton, and you’ll save yourself an overdraft in getting him.

If the round number doesn’t have two digits, don’t draft a D/ST or a kicker. Seems simple enough, right? But really, it’s not even that simple. Kickers should be afterthoughts as Blair Walsh, the top Fantasy kicker in 2012, only averaged two points per game higher than the league average fantasy kicker. Don’t waste your time over drafting a Gostowski or Walsh when you can get an average joe in the last round that’ll only cost you two points per game. Two points. If you can pick up on a solid sleeper who’s a good flex play in the eleventh round then you’ll be glad you passed up on that “big name” kicker.

Well, I’m done for now. You’re on your own with the rest. Happy drafting!

Source(s):
                www.espn.go.com
                www.bleacherreport.com
                www.sportsreference.com