Draft Guide 2013

Hey folks this is the second writer on this blog. My first post will be about the same exact thing as Curtis but with a couple twists.

My view on how to win your fantasy league is going to be specifically about and referencing PPR scoring, 12 team leagues. The first key to your fantasy football success is to draft properly so that is what this piece will be about. I will describe how to draft two rounds at a time.

Round 1 and 2: GET A RUNNING BACK. Running backs may not be the highest scorers in PPR leagues but they aren’t the most plentiful. A good running back is really hard to snatch up in the late rounds so you need to grab one in the first couple rounds. Round 1 really should be only running backs and probably Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson Jr. (whom I don’t think is really worthy of a first round pick because there are tons of other top tier wide receivers available that produce almost as much) with the last three or four picks. This means that a running back should occupy the first 8 picks in the first round at least.

What’s my reasoning in this? Well, out of the top 50 point scorers last season only 11 of them were running backs, which means that if everyone wanted the players that simply score the most points they would be left with a team of four quarterbacks and six wide receivers. So, if you draft for scarcity you will end up with two, hopefully three, strong running backs, a quarterback that will produce about as much as the seven guys ranked above him, and about three or four wide receivers that can all put up starter-worthy numbers any given week. But, drafting running backs in the first round is the only way to do that.

When I’m drafting in the first round, no matter what pick I have, I always look for the best running back available. That doesn’t necessarily mean I pick the guy with the higher rank. I go for the guy that will score the most touchdowns and have the most receptions and isn’t likely to go out with injury for half the season (even though there really isn’t a way of predicting that there are some guys like Trent Richardson I won’t draft because of their likelihood of going out with injury). Now I’ll walk you through what I think the first round should actually look like.

Pick 1: Adrian Peterson

Peterson is the obvious pick here. I really don’t have much to say about it. He gains the most yards, is the center of the Viking’s offense, scores plenty (13 TD’s last season), and gets a good amount of receptions (40 in 2012-2013).

Pick 2: Arian Foster

Foster has had the most touches out of any player in the NFL for the last few seasons which can be seen as either a bad or good thing in his situation. This means he gets the most opportunities, but since he is always getting the ball season after season, his numbers have decreased each year. Even though his production is decreasing, I think he is still worthy of the second pick overall because those decreased numbers are still higher than the rest of the players available.

Pick 3: Ray Rice

This is somewhat of a bold decision here. Yes, he does have a young guy behind him that will take some solid time from him, but he gets a ton of receptions and has been consistently a top five running back for almost his whole career. Rice obviously doesn’t get injured or just plays through the minor ones. The thing about taking Rice with the third pick is that there’s no risk. He will put up top five numbers and you don’t have to worry about a hit or miss guy.

Pick 4: Marshawn Lynch

The Beast has got to go here. He’s finally above all the skepticism of him under-producing. He scores a ton of touchdowns, is finally considered consistent and will play through injury if needed. Also, Lynch is finally on a winning team with a solid quarterback which always helps.

Pick 5: Doug Martin

I’ve heard lots of bad things about Doug Martin in his second year, but he has so much upside that you can’t pass up on him. Way too much upside. He averaged the second most points per week to Adrian Peterson last season, scored 12 touchdowns, and caught 49 passes and will only improve next year barring injury which is always a possibility with his running style.

Pick 6: Jamaal Charles

Charles finally has a quarterback in Alex Smith. Also, under Andy Reid Charles should get even more production by catching passes and will likely get in the end zone way more.

Pick 7: CJ Spiller

Doug Maroney’s running backs last season were the highest in the Big East. Also, Spiller himself was great last year catching 43 passes and averaging 6.0 yards per carry. His touchdowns were pretty low, only scoring 8 times, but he will probably go up with a more rush oriented offense and a new quarterback in Geno Smith leading the team that could lead to tremendous upside.

Pick 8: Trent Richardson

Richardson had a great rookie season with 12 touchdowns and catching 51 passes and will only improve, but the risk of taking a guy that was constantly questionable throughout the season and whose running style makes his very prone to injury is too high to take Richardson any higher. Richardson could have amazing upside but, in my opinion, is way too risky to pick earlier than 8^th unless you are willing to take a risk.

Pick 9: Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,295 yards last year and it was considered an off year. There’s no more to be said about Rodgers except that he will only be better next season. Even though there are solid quarterbacks later in the draft, Rodgers is way above the rest of the quarterbacks (except possibly Brees).

Pick 10: Calvin Johnson Jr.

I really don’t like Johnson at all and personally I wouldn’t ever pick him in the first round because I would be left without two solid running backs and I would be able to find solid wide receivers later, but if your league drafts perfectly and there is none of the above running backs left, then I guess you have to go with Megatron.

Pick 11: Drew Brees

Brees is the same story as Rodgers except there are obvious reasons for Brees’ production to go up. Sean Peyton is returning and that doesn’t necessarily mean that Brees’ production will increase, but there is always the possibility and he is already so good that you have to take him here if he falls.

Pick 12:

This is a very interesting pick because you can either look at this pick and the first pick in the second round as two first round picks or two second round picks. Here you have too many options for me to tell you who exactly to pick. I can tell you that a running back like Darren Sproles or LeSean McCoy is always a good pick or a wide out like AJ Green could work as long as you get a running back in the second round. Two running backs back to back such as one of the aforementioned running backs paired with Steven Jackson or Alfred Morris or Maurice Jones-Drew if you’re willing to take a risk.

The rest of the draft is much less predictable. My first round predictions obviously won’t be perfect for every league but you get the idea. If players get switched around you will have to improvise obviously but I gave you a basic guide for round one. Round two and on you have to obviously fill the rest of your roster, but a couple of those players can obviously be waited on. You obviously don’t have to get a defense or kicker in the third and fourth rounds or even the tenth round. Wait on defense and kickers until the last possible rounds because every kicker and defense will produce about the same as the next guy, and don’t be fooled buy guys like Stephen Gostowski or the Bears D/ST. They do put up more points every week than the lower ranked spots but that’s only a two point difference which really won’t make the difference week to week.

While drafting backup wide receivers and running backs I always look for guys that will play a lot, are on good teams, and may have been overlooked. Sidney Rice is now the primary receiver in the Seahawks offense due to Percy Harvin’s injury. Rice was ranked really low earlier before Harvin went out for the season but now Rice is going to be the top target for Russell Wilson. Rice will probably fall pretty far because he is ranked so low so snag him up in the middle rounds. There are tons of other players out there that can produce that are overlooked, also there are just so many wide receivers available that they will fall to you in the late rounds. On the subject of tight ends, you want to be either the first or last owner to draft one. Jimmy Graham is really the only TE worthy of a pick in the first half of the draft. The rest, including Rob Gronkowski, are all too unpredictable to really use a pick on that you could be using a pick on to get a good flex player or backup. The only valuable “steal” in the tight end position would be Ed Dickson that you can probably get in late rounds.

My final point in draft strategy is to not be scared away by rookies. Look at RGIII and Doug Martin and Alfred Morris … and I almost forgot Trent Richardson hasn’t been in the league for five years already! They all had great, top tier rookie seasons and were all passed up on early in drafts. RGIII fell to the seventh round, I believe, in my fantasy draft even though he was a top five QB and we all knew he would be good, but we all passed up on him because he was a rookie. I remember Cam Newton being overlooked in his rookie season by two members of my league that made a trade: Mark Sanchez for Cam Newton. The trade was offered by the guy getting Sanchez. On the topic of this season’s rookies, I haven’t done much research, but I do know that Eddie Lacy looks a lot like Trent Richardson. Both played at Alabama, are about the same body type, but Lacy put up better numbers in his years at Alabama. So that’s about all I can say on draft strategy. I’ll write again sometime after Saturday night which is when my draft is.

By,

Alex Davis