Pre-Season Fantasy Football- Important Notes and Little Tips to Help Build a League Champ

Right off the bat, if you want to win your league you need to know this:
It takes 8 wins gets into the playoffs 95% of the time. 8-5 is do-able. For anyone.

It takes 10 wins gets into the playoffs 100% of the time. So 10-3 is automatic.

94 points a game over 13 weeks is good enough to get you 8 wins. Shoot for 94 points, you’ll make it in (standard not PPR) For PPR leagues it can be assumed that 115 points will be a good aiming point, as about 21 receptions can be fair to expect out of your starters. Breaking it down:

QB: 17 pts | RB1: 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10

Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94

Running backs are critical. Keep in mind last year, I had Aaron Rodgers, Wes Welker, a top 5 D and a top five kicker. I went a pitiful 5-8 because my running backs were Shonn Greene and Darren Sproles. Who? The Dope Zebras Quickly turned into the Doped-Up Zebras.

Take two backs in the first three rounds or you’re most likely screwed, unless you can luck out to get Rodgers/ Brees, one top RB, and a dominant WR. Also you’re looking for consistency, and last year only sixteen running backs were good enough to score ten points eight times. They go by the following names (no particular order):

Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, CJ2K, Lesean Mccoy, and Michael Turner. And Turner barely got there.

Long story short, if you can get 2 or 3 of these guys in the first 3 rounds, do it! They’re capable of getting the ten points a game you want out of running backs in the winning 94 point formula. And running backs are critical, plus it’s always key to have a good third RB as a bye week plug-in, injury backup, or flex play. Top RBs are few and far between in today’s NFL. And when there’s a shortage on something such as NFL running backs, they will go early and often.

Rodgers, Brees, P. Manning, Brady. If the quarterback does not have one of these names they aren’t worthy of a top-3 round pick. You can easily find a man named Romo or Palmer who are quality fantasy QBs later on, 6^th or maybe even 7^th rounds. The in-betweeners, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Even RG3, They aren’t worth your time unless they fall until the fifth round. Then their value increases, and a guy like Ryan is easily worth a 5^th round pick.

Another thing to consider:

Calvin Johnson Jr. Megatron. The Beast. Manimal. Whatever you want to call him, he’s not worth a first round pick. Especially in PPR leagues.
Think about it, drafting running backs this year is so critical that Megatron should NOT be on your first round considerations list, unless you pick 12^th in a 12 team snake draft after the top 11 RBs were taken and you plan on taking a RB with your 13^th pick. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy, but if you’re planning on building a team to win your league he is not worth 1^st round credentials.

Relating back to PPR leagues, why would you spend a 1^st round pick on Megatron when you could get two top RB’s and then Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, or Larry Fitzgerald (Who by the way, has a Quarterback throwing to him now) in the third round? All three of those guys have top end WR talent and top 5 fantasy potential year in and year out. So fill your voids at running back before you worry about taking Calvin Johnson Jr. Wide receivers can wait, Running backs are limited.

You’re an idiot to take a quarterback top 5. I’m sorry but I feel that’s all I have to say.

Don’t be afraid of taking Rob Gronkowski. Now now, I know he’s injured. I know he might not play week one, or week two, or week three. But play your cards right and he could be a steal in the fourth or fifth round. Why? Because his quarterback is Tom Brady, a top 5 QB year in and year out who is also consistently an MVP candidate. Gronk will be back and he will be Gronk. “Injury Prone” is a calling card for him but think about it, who does Brady have to throw to? Welker peaced out for Denver and Hernandez is rotting away in Jail. God knows why Brandon Lloyd is still a free agent but he is. Remember Danny Woodhead? He’s gone too. Gronk is a freak and if he comes back healthy and stays, he’s beyond worth waiting out 2 or 3 weeks without a tight-end scoring too much. The man has 38 touchdowns in 43 games as a pro! The numbers don’t lie, healthy Gronk is an animal. Draft a second tight end later on, IE a Jermicheal Finley or Martellus Bennett, and you will be A-OK. Trust me.

Don’t Overdraft a Defense. Ever, not if your life depends on it. People might get rowdy and take the 49ers and Seahawks and Broncos Defenses in the 7^th or 8^th rounds, crazy I know. But for my money’s worth, The Patriots Defense will be the best defensive draft value on the board this year. Bellichick is a genius and knows what he’s doing with that team. With all the Offensive holes to be filled, Defense should be the core of the Pats this year. They weren’t too shabby last year either, forcing 20 interceptions, 19 forced fumbles and recovering 8 of them. Not to mention they had 6 defensive touchdowns, more than Calvin Johnson Jr. had receiving or LeSean McCoy had rushing. Talk about opportunistic! The Pats Defense gets my full praise and if you can draft them in the 10^th or 11^th rounds, do it without question.

Sleepers: My biggest sleepers this year come by way of rookies, such as Cecil Shorts last year. Ring a bell Anthone?

Deandre Hopkins, WR Hou.- Houston has looked endlessly over the last decade for a solid number two wide receiver to couple Andre Johnson. The 6’1, 207, first round pick outta Clemson could very well answer the call. He’s an incredible athlete who won’t have much attention drawn to him with Johnson on the other side, and with a veteran QB like Schaub throwing to him he has every opportunity for success. He’s drawn comparisons to Roddy White, so that in it of itself should say a lot. Take him late, low-risk, high-reward situation.

Robert Woods, WR Buf.- Now yes this is fandom 101 for me, but look. Woods is a guy who’ll be a number 2 in Buffalo with Stevie Johnson on the other side drawing a lot of attention. It’s a little bit of a long shot with either Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel throwing him the football, but the guy has good size at 6’1, 190 and has great hands. Consistent hands haven’t been a part of Buffalo’s Offense since Eric Moulds (Who?) and Lee Evans were No. 1 & 2 receivers back in 2004.  Woods has a good chance at posting solid numbers this year, and for a guy who’s only owned in 9 percent of leagues why not take the risk?

Eddie Lacy, RB, GB- The rookie should start drawing comparisons to Trent Richardson immediately. Same body type at 5’9, 230, they even split the backfield in Alabama (Roll Tide!) he’s a power back who if, at nothing else, will be a professional vulture this year in Green Bay. Right now he and co-rookie Johnathan Franklin are battling for the starting job in Green Bay but Lacy seems to have the edge. Injury concerns are reasonable with him but if Richardson is any sign of what Lacy can do, then he could be a mid-to-late round steal. He’s a strong and big downhill runner who will see touches on the goal line, so look into Lacy.

Now down to draft strategy.

The first 9 Picks should be running backs. In fact if you pick 1^st through 7^th I’d say your first two picks should be running backs. End of the first round is the only acceptable slot for Rodgers or Brees to go that high, so if you’re picking 10^th through 12^th and they’re still available, take them! But think ahead to take a running back early second round, then third round look at a wide receiver and fourth a second running back, i.e. Darren Sproles or Montee Ball. And don’t Forget, Megatron really should be a second round pick.

Wide Receivers are plentiful in every meaning of the word. Most certainly there is a top tier of four guys- Calvin Johnson Jr, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and AJ Green. I might even be willing to add Wes Welker to that list in PPR leagues. But after that tier there is an absolute plethora, a casserole of nonsense of good wide receivers. There are about 30 guys you can plug in here and win games with. So really, why waste a first round pick on Megatron? I feel like I’m beating a dead horse here but he just isn’t worth a first round pick. If you can get him or another top tier guy late second round I’ll give you the green light, but that’s about as far as I’d reach to get one of them. Get your wide receivers 3^rd and 4^th round and you’ll be happy with your lineup.

The only two tight ends I like going in the first four rounds are Jimmy Graham and Gronk. They’re both beasts but should only be drafted if you have two solid running backs or a top-tier RB and a top tier QB. Otherwise you’re wasting your time. Graham should go mid-third and I can see gronk going mid-4^th to early 5^th in 12 team leagues. Next in line is Tony Gonzalez, who, paired with Jason Witten, should go 5^th round. Other than that don’t even worry about tight ends. Kyle Randolph, oops my mistake, Rudolph*, or Scott Chandler, Jared Cook or Brett Myers. They’re all the same. Even Vernon Davis, a supposed top-tier tight end, posted a goose-egg twice last year. If you aren’t taking a top 4 guy at tight end, wait until late rounds to snatch one of thirty average joes who’ll all produce about the same.

If you can’t get a top 5 QB in the first three rounds wait it out. Pick up someone like Romo sixth or seventh round, he’ll most likely put up the same numbers or similar to Cam Newton, and you’ll save yourself an overdraft in getting him.

If the round number doesn’t have two digits, don’t draft a D/ST or a kicker. Seems simple enough, right? But really, it’s not even that simple. Kickers should be afterthoughts as Blair Walsh, the top Fantasy kicker in 2012, only averaged two points per game higher than the league average fantasy kicker. Don’t waste your time over drafting a Gostowski or Walsh when you can get an average joe in the last round that’ll only cost you two points per game. Two points. If you can pick up on a solid sleeper who’s a good flex play in the eleventh round then you’ll be glad you passed up on that “big name” kicker.

Well, I’m done for now. You’re on your own with the rest. Happy drafting!

Source(s):
                www.espn.go.com
                www.bleacherreport.com
                www.sportsreference.com