I'll be honest, week 5 made me feel like a genius and an idiot at the same time. Why does the NFL love to surprise us? Oh yeah, I forgot it's the best source of entertainment in the United States. Who in the world predicted that in the Broncos-Cowboys game there would be almost 100 points scored? That Peyton would put up 30 fantasy points and Tony Romo would outscore him by double digits? That's ludicrous, but it's why I'm in love with football and fantasy football. There's nothing, and I do mean absolutely nothing, that you can accurately predict from week to week. But I'm still going to try, no matter how foolish I appear at times.
Speaking of the unpredictable, there's one particular guy in our league that has outshown everyone. And although he is the defending league champion, it's still surprising. This league is so competitive that 8 of the 12 teams rest at either 3-2 or 2-3 after 5 weeks, myself included who currently sits in 6th place in possession of the final playoff spot. This guy, named David, has completely obliterated everybody and nobody really understands how. He's 5-0 and facing my co-writer, Alex this week (who I lost to last week, however Alex is still a measly 1-4 and is currently 11th in the league) who is a much lesser opponent by David's standards. Looking at 6-0 we're left to ponder, how is David so much better? The answer: overproduction and unpredictability.
Looking at David's team, appropriately named "The Abusement Park" you really have to appreciate just how good it is. His typical starting lineup is as follows:
QB- RGIII
RB1- Reggie Bush
RB2- Fred Jackson
WR1- Calvin Johnson Jr.
WR2- Pierre Garcon
TE- Jimmy Graham
Flex- Le'veon Bell/ James Jones
His defense and kicker usually vary week to week on who's matchup looks good.
This is the team that has destroyed everything in its path. He's the proud owner of 2 of my 3 losses this year and has left me scratching my head multiple times. But when you look into it, he's had some ridiculous production from his lineup all year long. Reggie Bush has hoisted 25 points (it's PPR format) in 2 of the 3 games he's played in full, Fred Jackson has been in double-digit point territory week in and week out. Before missing last week due to injury Megatron was the 7th best receiver points-wise in the league. Jimmy Graham has had one of the best fantasy seasons for a tight end of all time, his point totals through 5 weeks are 14, 34, 34, 27 and 23. What? Are you kidding me? What's even better is last week David had the absences of RGIII, Megatron and Pierre Garcon, leading everyone to believe he was susceptible to defeat for the first time on the season. In their places he started Terrelle Pryor, James Jones, and Alshon Jeffery. He still scored 164 points as the three posted 21, 23 and 39 points, respectively. How? How is it possible for every freaking guy this guy plays to perform like he's top 5 at his position? Unpredictability. That's the only solution and he's loved the unpredictability of the NFL so far. I don't know how he does it but it goes to show that no one in the world can accurately predict this stuff all the time. That being said, here's my best attempt at a week 6 Love-Hate List.
Love:
QB- Jay Cutler, CHI
Taking on a pitiful 29th ranked Giants pass defense Thursday night the Bears quarterback will look to light it up. With emerging receiver Alshon Jeffery who's combined for a whopping 15 catches, 325 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past two weeks and seasoned veterans Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett, the Chicago offense is littered with a plethora of weapons for Mr. Cutler.
QB- Alex Smith, KC
Alex Smith a fantasy stud? Far from it, right? Wrong. Over the first 5 games Smith has put up the 11th most QB points, with his first two home matchups producing 511 yards through the air, 84 yards on the ground and 5 touchdowns. With a matchup at home against a 24th ranked Oakland defense that has given up over 1,000 passing yards and 6 passing TDs in the last 3 weeks I could see him putting up huge numbers.
QB- Tom Brady, NE.
He's had a disappointing start but with it being fair to assume Gronkowski finally makes his season debut this week against the Saints Brady could be right back on track to having another big fantasy season. Gronkowski has 38 touchdowns through 43 career games and I could see him finding his way to the end zone multiple times his against a Saints defense that has given up points to opposing tight ends.
RB- Danny Woodhead, SD
Don't let the mediocre rushing stats fool you into thinking he has no value. Especially in PPR leagues this guy can come up big time as he does his best Darren Sproles impression, and with Ryan Mathews out Monday against Indianapolis Woodhead will see the majority of the workload.
RB- Knowshon Moreno, DEN
While Manning has put up absolutely gaudy numbers Moreno himself has quietly had a good fantasy season. With the Broncos hosting the dismal Jags and being 28 point favorites, Moreno will see a good amount of carries as the Broncos play from ahead. I mean, wayyyyyy ahead.
RB- Trent Richardson, IND
Now that he's had a couple weeks to become acclimated in Indy Richardson faces a San Diego defense that is giving up about 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Monday night could be a breakout game for Richardson to kick start his already hectic 2013 season.
RB- Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
The Broncos-Jags game this week could be an epic display of grotesque hideousness. Yet the Broncos D has given up the 7th most points to opposing running backs this season, and with MJD coming off his most productive outing of the year I see him potentially breaking out this week.
WR- Cecil Shorts III, JAX
I had to include the third in his name because this is the 3rd time he's been in my love section this year. Shorts is leading the NFL in targets with 61 and his 31 catches are good for 10th best. The return of Justin Blackmon took coverage away from Shorts last week and allowed him to take advantage and get into the endzone for the 1st time this season, and this week against a defense that gave up 4 TDs to Cowboys wide receivers last week I see him going off. Unless you have wide receivers on top of wide receivers, Shorts is a no brainer this week.
WR- Danny Amendola, NE
The return of Gronkowski will help everyone in New England's passing game, especially Amendola. Look for him to get his fair share of looks against New Orleans this week in a game I believe could be a shootout.
WR- Reggie Wayne, IND
Facing a horrendous 30th ranked pass-defense in the Chargers on Monday night it's fair to assume that Andrew Luck's favorite target could hoist some pretty serious numbers. The ageless wonder has had at least 3 catches in an NFL record 69 consecutive games, meaning that he's among the most consistent receivers in NFL history. Give him the nod as he's a lock to extend that streak to 70 games this week.
WR- DeSean Jackson, PHI
He's incredibly hit and miss, but its just a gut call this week. 24 of his 28 catches have gone for first downs, and that 85% ratio is the best in the league. HE's also fifth amongst qualified receivers in yards per catch, averaging 18.8 yards every time he gets the ball. Averaging 105 yards a game I really don't think it matters who is under center in Philly, as Jackson's value will stand tall.
TE- Rob Gronkowski, NE
Assuming that the waiting game is finally over in New England, Gronkowski is the man. As I mentioned previously he's got 38 touchdowns in 43 career games, leaving it at an 86% chance he finds the endzone this week, or any week for that matter.
TE- Vernon Davis, SF
Reasons to like him this week: Arizona is giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. He's coming off a performance of 88 yards and a touchdown. His Quarterback goes by the name of Copernicus.
Start him.
D/ST- KC
How is this not obvious yet? Hello? *Herm Edwards Voice* YOU PLAY. TO WIN. THE GAME. Simple as that. They still aren't owned in every league and they're the number one defense in the land. Start 'em start 'em start 'em.
D/ST- BUF
It's fair to say that the Bills Defense is enjoying a good year thus far. Forcing turnovers is of the essence in Buffalo, Ranked 1st in the league in interceptions and T-4th in the league in total turnovers forced. The Legend of Kiko Alonso and the Bills D will live on in week 6 at home against the Bengals.
The Week 6 Hate List:
QB- Colin Kaepernick, SF
San Francisco will still throw the ball but recent success on the ground will lead to consistently lower stats for the man known as Copernicus. Although I love his tight end this week I can't lead myself to invest in the QB himself against a Patrick Peterson led secondary.
QB- Eli Manning, NYG
I gotta face facts here. The man is a turnover machine in 2013 as the abysmal Giants are looking dead in the face of 0-6. It doesn't get any easier for them this week against Chicago. Being on pace for 38 INTs is an automatic spot on the bench or on waivers for Eli.
RB- Giovani Bernard, CIN
Buffalo's defense is good... And it's the first time anyone has honestly said that since the turn of the millennium. Facing the 2nd ranked run defense and splitting carries with The Law Firm are two factors that don't bode well for Bernard's value this week.
RB- Pierre Thomas, NO
Although a massive week 5 performance led to a rush on Thomas he isn't consistent enough for my taste, and against the Pats this week I see fellow running back Darren Sproles as a much better option for the Undefeated Saints.
WR- Antonio Brown, PIT
He's had a breakout season thus far and coming off the bye I could see him playing well this week, unfortunately the other Antonio that is covering him for the Jets this week will most likely shut him down all game.
WR- Julian Edelman, NE
He's the one man in the rotation that isn't benefited from the returns of Gronk and Amendola. His spot in the slot will be handed back over to Amendola and Gronk will see alot of looks this week, and with emerging WR Kenbrell Thompkins, Edelman seems to be the odd man out moving forward. His return duties could maintain his flex play value, however.
WR- Nate Washington, TEN
Against Seattle's D this week I can't see any Titans wide receiver really getting going behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. Until Locker returns almost all Tennessee Wide receivers will have depreciating value.
TE- Jared Cook, STL
Since a massive week 1 performance, he's been a fantasy no-show. After everyone jumped on his bandwagon I was among the last laughing, as I was wise to choose Jordan Cameron over repeat disappointment Mr. Cook.
TE- Scott Chandler, BUF
With a practice squad QB with just 1 NFL start under his belt Chandler's value is decreased significantly. The Cincinnati linebacking core will have their sights set on the 6'7" Chandler this week as Lewis makes his Bills debut in place of the injured Manuel.
D/ST- WAS
The Redskins Defense has been torched all year long and with a high octane Dallas offense being this week's
opponent I don't see that improving. Romo threw for 500 yards and 5 TDs last week, and although I won't say he's going to repeat that I will say that he could again hoist some good-looking numbers.
D/ST- JAX
Not like they're owned in any leagues anyway, I just thought I oughta point this out. They're projected for a staggering -10 this week against Denver. The amount of points that experts think Denver will put up? 58. That is the first time in my life I've ever seen such a projection. Just... wow.
And that wraps up this week's edition of the love-hate list. Until next time, my fellow fantasy footballers, i bid you farewell.
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